Dynamical prediction of flu seasonality driven by ambient temperature: influenza vs. common cold

This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the ambient temperature. It is argued that this approach allows for the forecast of common cold, but not of influenza in a strict sense. The difference in their kinetic models is discussed with reference to the clinical background.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

Spectral properties of fractional Fokker-Plank operator for the L\'evy flight in a harmonic potential

We present a detailed analysis of the eigenfunctions of the Fokker-Planck operator for the L\'evy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, their asymptotic behavior and recurrence relations, explicit expressions in coordinate space for the special cases of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Gaussian and with Cauchy white noise and for the transformation kernel, which maps the fractional Fokker-Planck operator of the Cauchy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to the non-fractional Fokker-Planck operator of the usual Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also describe how non-spectral relaxation can be observed in bounded random variables of the L\'evy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and their correlation functions.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Euro. Phys. J.